Yamana Gold (AUY): Bounce Play?

Submitted by theStockMasters... on Mon, 08/11/2008 - 16:41

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Financial News

One of our favorite gold stocks, Yamana Gold Inc. (NYSE:AUY) is taking it on the chin today down 10% and just $1 away from their 52-week low. Sure gold prices have sucked lately, but AUY earnings, future output, and dividend to boot can't mean its gold garbage?

There's no need to copy/paste, the Fool.com's Christopher Barker already wrote the perfect article regarding AUY's recent drop in market share, here's the scoop:

Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY) reports that second-quarter revenue increased 83% from the prior year to $337 million, while adjusted earnings improved 34% to $103 million.

Yamana produced more than 250,000 gold-equivalent ounces on the strength of robust production from the flagship Chapada Mine in Brazil. Combined with its low cost structure, it's no wonder fellow Fool Toby Shute chose Yamana as his best stock for 2008. Despite being down 18% on the year, I still think his pick is a great call for the long haul.

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Interestingly, Yamana's shares are trading right where they did in November 2006, when gold sold for about $640 per ounce -- more than $200 less than the current spot price. Given the improved strength of the business and its prospects, that seems silly.

Along with fellow intermediate gold producers Kinross Gold (NYSE: KGC) and Agnico-Eagle Mines (NYSE: AEM), Yamana has ample room to grow production organically from existing reserves for years to come. Megaminers like Newmont Gold (NYSE: NEM) and Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX), in contrast, will be under greater pressure to replace production from their aging mine portfolios. For this reason, I am standing by the midcap miners through this painful correction in gold.

Let's face it Masters, trying to find the bottom with gold prices could send your portfolio to Zero dollars in a heartbeat. However at some point Yamana is going to bounce, be it analyst upgrade, a Barron's article or whatever, AUY will comeback.