Crocs Inc. at $28 a share - Are you serious Wall Street?

Crocs, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:CROX) Q4 profit increased 84%, international sales more than tripled to $109 million, but the 2008 guidance missed by a penny -- 20% drop total in share price for the day.

You're kidding right?

Look, I hate those shoes more than anyone, but with Wall Street overreacting to a guidance that is already conservative in nature is just rediculous. Inventory concerns seem justified for pushing the stock down, but not by 20%, and holding the guidance is reasonable given the state of economy.

I thought the stock at $70 back in October was just dumb.  Then it tanked into the high $30's, then every stock fell thanks to the recession scare, and now it's under $30?  Wow.

Stockmastery aside, this is going to bounce, and if it doesn't it, the whole system is retarded.

Even if growth at Crocs slows 37% as Wall Street expects, it's hard to be bearish on a company which just scored 2007 Revenues at $847.4 Million an increase of 138.9% YOY.

Here's what's going to happen:

1. Prepare yourself to read nothing but CROX articles tomorrow (and the rest of the week) by everyone website under the sun and CNBC to mention CROX every 6 seconds.

2. The stock will probably stay flat for the day or maybe inch up 2%. That's what it should do, but with all the hate going around, it's going to $25 a share.

3. Analysts are going to pound the stock, but a few weeks from now, expect them all to keep their ratings, but raise their target prices based on valuation and the stock trading at a discount.

4. Short sellers bail out to continue making money on CROX, this time riding the wave back up.

The shoes are ugly but the company is now officially undervalued.  Patience is key for investors buying now, but I believe Crocs will return to $30 a share in March.

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