SiRF Technology falls hard today

Today analysts at Dougherty & Company maintained their "buy" rating on SiRF Technology Holdings Inc (SIRF) and reduced their target price from $35 to $11. Too bad Wall Street kicked shares down 55% to $7.32 (and falling), I guess Dougherty & Company forget to Carry a 1 or 0 with their latest estimate.

Turns out SiRF's earnings call yesterday disappointed a few investors with fourth-quarter results coming in lower than Wall Street's expectations and issuing a first-quarter guidance below analyst estimates.

The San Jose, CA-based provider of software and semiconductors for personal navigation devices Monday posted a fourth-quarter profit of 28 cents per share, versus the mean 32-cent estimate of analysts polled by Thomson Financial. Oops.

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SiRF makes chips and software to enable GPS navigation in cars and handheld gadgets. A couple of customers reduced their orders late in the quarter, and the important Korean market suffered shortages of a size of LCD screens that no other country digs.

In a conference call Chief Executive Michael Canning said that given the broader direction of the economy and the possibility of a decline in consumer spending, the company will not be providing full-year guidance. Canning said he sees 'much greater than normal seasonality and uncertainty' ahead and forecast an adjusted per-share loss of 4 cents to breakeven and revenue in the range of $71 million to $77 million for the first quarter. The mean estimate of analysts polled by Thomson Financial was for a per-share profit of 24 cents on revenue of $92.4 million.

Here's what the analysts did to the stock after the call thanks to Money.CNN.com:

SiRF was downgraded to neutral at Piper Jaffray (NYSE:PJC) , Thomas Weisel Partners, UBS (NYSE:UBS) Investment Research and Longbow Research. Oppenheimer lowered its rating on the company to perform.

'While we believe delayed handset launches at Motorola (NYSE:MEU) (NYSE:MOT) continue pressuring revenue growth into handset end markets, we now believe SiRF's competitive position within PND end markets is eroding faster than expected,' Piper Jaffray Senior Research Analyst Amit Kapur wrote in a note to clients Tuesday. 'Given current strong PND industry unit volumes and SiRF's leading share at most customers, we believe downside risk to estimates remains if macroeconomic conditions further deteriorate.'

Competition from other companies, including STMicroelectronics (NYSE:STM) N.V., Qualcomm Inc. (NASDAQ:QCOM) and Broadcom Corp. (NASDAQ:BRCM) 'is starting to have a more severe impact on market share, revenues and profitability, ahead of market expectations (and likely management itself) given the sudden deterioration in performance,' UBS research analyst Jeroen Bos said in a research note Tuesday.

So what to make of it all?

A new 52-week low for SiRF shares which is 20% below its previous all-time low stock price. There has to be some value with shares priced so low and with everyone looking to find a stock with a bounce, SiRF may be a winner for %5 to %10 gain in the next few months.

Article written by Eric Cheshier

Contributor to theStockMasters.com

Disclaimer: The Author does not hold any positions or shares in the securities mentioned in this publication